Thursday, August 18, 2011

Thing aren't that bad, and that's the problem

We keep hearing from our politicians and pundits, and we start believing it ourselves, that we are facing unprecedented problems in this country and that things are worse now than they have ever been. In short these are the worse of times for the United States.

Nonsense.

What about 1929- 1939-- the Great Depression, massive unemployment , dust bowls, runs on the banks, Hoovervilles, breadlines, labor union clashes,etc.

What about 1940-43 -- Nazi Germany marching through Europe and advancing on Leningrad, Britain under siege, Pearl Harbor and Japan sweeping through the Pacific.

What about the 1950's with the Korean War and the expanding Communist Soviet Union and it's nuclear threat ( remember those drills hiding under school desk), culminating with the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1961. McCarthyism and its fall out.

Racism and bigotry were rampant. Eventually strife arose from the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s and beyond , including the riots after MLK's assassination.

What about the Viet Nam War, with so many killed and wounded, and massive demonstrations, protests and civil disobedience in the 1960's and early 70's.

Remember all the years when we constantly lamented Urban Decay and the loss of our Farm Economy. Don't forget the era of Stagflaion and gas lines from the Arab Oil Embargo and the Savings and Loan Crisis. Our cities were crumbling and farmers couldn't make a decent living. The "inner cities " were dying.

Women and minorities did not have the rights and opportunities they have today.

We had some very bad recessions in the mid 1970s and early 1980s and 1990s. Don't forget the bursting of the DotCom bubble in 2001, with the economic down turn following that. Of course let's not forget 9/11.

Remember that in the 50s the top tax rate exceeded 70% and has been essentially falling since to where we are at today.

If we honestly examine it, the "good old days" weren't all that great.

Today, things comparatively aren't all that bad, and maybe that is why we have to amplify the problems we do have for some reason.

Of course the unemployment rate is a terrible problem, and debt and deficit are very serious problems that have to be dealt with. Housing prices are dreadful after the sub prime lending crisis set off the housing collapse which lead to the financial melt down and resulting Great Recession.


However inflation and interest rates are low. We are in the painful but ultimately beneficial process of de-leveraging our debt levels. Those who have jobs are doing reasonably well and are now feeling less worried. While home values have plunged most people are secure in their housing situation. The market has come back nicely from it's lows and the main market problems today appear to be in Europe and with our politicians. Our corporations are operating at very profitable levels and basically are awaiting increased demand to justify new hiring. Reportedly they are sitting on a mountain of cash but need to have confidence in the economy to invest it. Where will that come from?

Notwithstanding Standard and Poor's, the world believes that US Treasuries are still the safest investment in the world.

Our farm economy is so strong that it should be embarrassing to them to still be getting large government farm subsidies. For example, Iowa is in great shape, so what are they so angry about?

The wars we are involved in are being fought by volunteers who, for a variety of reasons, have chosen to be in the military. Therefore the rest of us really haven't had to sacrifice to fight these far off wars. The risk of a terrorist attack is real but sadly it is the nature of world we live in.


The one thing that really is broken is our political process. Our politicians, abetted by the pundits, have created a toxic atmosphere over things that in reality can be relatively easily dealt with by people of good will and reason. For example, Simpson Bowles would do the job, and relatively painlessly. Why hasn't either party embraced it? The so called Gang of Six are on the right track but partisan on both sides of the aisle block compromise at every turn.

Since our country's strengths are so extensive and our assets are so strong , we can do the things that need to be done, if the political will is there. We can afford to raise revenue. There certainly are areas where spending can and should be cut significantly. Meaningful adjustments to entitlements can be made in a relatively minor and thoughtful way which would have a major impact on bringing down the debt and the deficit.

Once a program which includes these things is developed and implemented, confidence in our political process will be restored and the economy will start to grow again and finish the job of solving our debt and deficit problems, as occurred in the 1990s when economic prosperity generated increased tax revenues from increased incomes and profits. We are lucky our problem are so solvable -- think Greece.


However, there are too many politician and pundits who don't want to solve our problems; no, they just want to win elections to gain or retain power. When will we all wake up to the fact that they care more about winning elections , with all the spoils that provides, than what is in the best interest of the country.

Maybe that has always been true, and is just a part of human nature, but it's so much more apparent these days.

Shared sacrifice through political consensus is the answer. Compared to what we have had to do in the past , it shouldn't be all that hard.

Eric



3 comments:

  1. Thank you for putting it in perspective. It is true that we seem to think that the most recent problems are the greatest ones. That’s because we don’t know how it’s all going to turn out. We, or our parents, lived through the ones you list and we came out all right. It’s the unknown that frightens us. It’s impossible to convince us that this time is not different – we tend to think that this really is the end.

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  2. Thanks for your insights. It's true people are more frightened when they are in the middle of a crisis ( which is why I tend to be an optimists when times are bad and a pessimist when good).

    This crisis is being twisted and cynically exploited by the far right. They are using it to advance their agenda of smaller government and, as I stated, to get power for personal advantage.

    I don't know who said it but ," perception is reality" and our cool, calm and deliberate President doesn't project the perception that he's got a plan to get our economy growing again and create jobs. Oddly enough both the far left's push to raise taxes and the far right's obsession with cutting spending, certainly will not boost the economy and create jobs.

    Frankly I don't think any plan will work ( our structural unemployment can't be fixed quickly) and the economy will eventually heal by itself. The US has too much going for it and things will change for the better at some point, no matter what the government does. In fact the government has a better chance of retarding a recovery than the other way around.

    Nonetheless it's critical for the President to convey an impression that he has a plan to improve the economy, whether it will work or not. What he needs to project is leadership--- a very hard thing to do . FDR flailed around like crazy, but at least the majority of the people felt he was trying . He didn't get re-elected three times for nothing.

    Obama is too much of a thoughtful, rational intellectual ( which is what I like about him) and can't seem to connect with the hoi polloi. If I was him I'd start calling the Republican's bluff on raising revenues and push the mantra of shared sacrifice. The Tea Party may be loud, but do they have the votes. Specifically, if he raised the cut off for who is "rich" beyond $250,000 I think it would help a lot. That number hits too close to home for too many people who, while well off, rightly don't consider themselves rich. Going the other direction, I won't object to letting the Bush tax cuts expire for everybody, but that would be death politically.

    The irony of course is that corporations have found themselves to be more profitable with fewer workers and demand is so weak they have no reason to increase hiring. How do we break this cycle?

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  3. Your "good old days" were not really that good, etc. is right on target. Did you see Midnight in Paris? I did and loved it for that and other reasons. I said to my wife this is what I've been saying about lots of things for a long time. You hear it in sports, politics and other areas all the time-- I call it the "back in the day" syndrome. There must be scientific articles about human being having these positive selective memories of the past. Remember the ending of Carly Simon's song Anticipation-- " These are the Good Old Days"-- only we rarely feel that way while we're in them.

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