Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Iran Reality

I do not believe Iran is the existential nuclear threat to Israel  that has been portrayed by the Israeli right or the other opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran for the following reasons:

  1. Does Iran hate Israel enough to set off a nuclear attack that would result in :
             a. The death of millions of Iranians when Israel retaliates.
             b.  The deaths of millions of Palestinians who live in Israel and the West Bank.
             c. Radioactive fallout and death all over the Levant, depending on which way the wind blows
             d. US attack destroying what's  left of their military arsenal and much more.

 Iranians won't tolerate it when millions of their own people die and their economy is destroyed.

 2. This is especially true given that  Iran: 
             a. Is not even an Arab state ,
             b. Is not Sunni Muslim , and
             c. Does not even  border Israel.

 Why does Iran hate Israel so much that it would bring about # 1 above?

The answer is, it doesn't. Iran's leaders' threats are solely for domestic consumption to deflect away from their own internal problems.

 For all of the reasons stated above, Iran would never attack Israel with nuclear weapons, even if they could.

Yes,  I know it's easy for me to say, and I understand the  genuine fear Israelis have;  but it will never happen. The  Iranians are not that stupid, no matter how fanatical some of their leaders may appear.

 Unlike the "Arab street" , in  the not too distant past, the Iranian people enjoyed warm relations with Israel. My guess is they don't really care all that much about the Palestinians;  certainly not enough to risk the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war.

 Given this reality, Israel and the US must be careful  not overplay its opposition to Iran . That could be a greater threat to peace than an Iranian nuclear program.

We should continue to pressure and oppose Iran, and hope for change in the future ,but take care not to " smoke our own opium". Keep the pressure on Iran, but don't allow the situation  to actually explode.


Wednesday, April 19, 2017

China / North Korea Gambit

Here's a theory:

The crisis on the Korean Peninsula was all a set up by China; working with its client dependent state North Korea.

China will get North Korea to back down in exchange for trade concessions from the US. 

 More importantly, the US will acquiesce to China regarding the South China Sea;  as well as ultimately removing US troops and missiles from Japan and South Korea. This will all play out over time.
This will cost China very little but the US will essentially cede economic and military dominance in Asia to China. Sadly, Trump and the Progressive were going that direction anyway.

North Korean belligerence was all a set up for the benefit of China. Otherwise what does North Korea get out of its aggressive behavior. They gain nothing from war, but  will get absolute protection from China after they "back down".

In other words, the Chinese and North Korea have set this whole thing up for China's benefit; all the while, Trump takes credit for reducing the North Korean nuclear threat. 

Trump will say he's the winner, but in reality he will have been played.

Someday historians will ask , who lost Asia?  The answer will be Donald J. Trump.