Help me out here with the following :
1. Trump, as well as Sanders, and all politicians for that matter, promise
they will put Americans back to work by creating millions of new jobs.
2. The unemployment rate is at 4.3%
3. Many stories abound lamenting the number of unfilled job openings.
For example, Governor Walker, at a recent Trump rally, talked about the all
time high number of job openings in Wisconsin . Most were not high tech.
This morning I read a story in a real estate publication about a near
crisis of a labor shortage in the construction industry ( no advanced
education needed I assume). Projects may not be built due to shortage of
workers.
How do we reconcile 1 with 2 and 3 above?
Notwithstanding what we're otherwise told, apparently the jobs are already out there
and they don't all require advanced education.
I'd like to see a thoughtful, well researched analysis on this apparent
paradox.
Eric-
ReplyDeleteThe paradox has been in place for a while. Initially it was assumed to be a skills mismatch. I discussed the matter with the Fed and they argued that employers needed to train recruits to close the gap.
Nowadays there is about one job opening for every sidelined worker. Our CEO clients continue to lament the shortage of skilled labor, like engineers, but when asked about low skilled workers they complain that many of their job applicants simply can't pass a drug test.
Historically, immigration was used to close the unskilled labor gap. I suspect that's still happening. Under Trump, it's probably more difficult.
Everything starts with the Unemployment numbers, than you look at the
ReplyDeleteJobs available and break them into Industries with basically required skills.
NOW it is not an employers Job Market. It is an applicant driven market.
It's a great time for someone who wants to make a change to look around,
watch your linked in and other networking sites. Update your resume and
see where you stand. Many employers have plenty of money to spend on
Recruitment if they really want to fill a job. They have been stuffing their
profits away basically since Obama became President and we were facing
a serious Depression in this country. Jobs all but dried up during Bush times.
Throughout the last 8 years jobs gained a great deal of momentum. That is
why the unemployment numbers are hitting many industries particularly
hard. You have to look at the hot industries which have changed thanks to
Trump. We actually have Coal lol back on the radar. Healthcare continues
to grow faster than the companies can keep up with. We the Baby Boomers
have impacted this industry with numbers never seen before.
So Politics, Baby Boomers, Insurance, Healthcare, Solar, Cyber, Technology,
Pharmaceutical and other buzz words impact the Job Market! However, the
biggie is always the Stock Market. Always keep your eye on that as a gauge
on Jobs! No money, no jobs ! But large corporations will always cry poor(except
to their stockholders) no matter what when it comes to hiring.
They will pay huge fees to hire when there backs are to the wall. They will pay
millions for a temporary CEO if they have to. I want to end with Trump and
the unknown factors he puts into play, he can Tweet and change the Job Market.
So basically everything I have ever known about this industry is up for grabs!
Wish I had stock in Twitter, they get free advertising almost everyday without
spending a dime?