I do not believe Iran is the existential nuclear threat
to Israel that has been portrayed by the
Israeli right or the other opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran for the
following reasons:
1. Does Iran
hate Israel enough to set off a nuclear attack that would result in :
a. The death of millions of Iranians when
Israel retaliates.
b. The
deaths of millions of Palestinians who live in Israel and the West Bank.
c. Radioactive fallout and death all over the
Levant, depending on which way the wind blows
d. US attack destroying what's left of their military arsenal and much more.
Iranians won't tolerate it when millions of their own people die and their economy is destroyed.
2. This is
especially true given that Iran:
a. Is not even an Arab state ,
b. Is not Sunni Muslim , and
c. Does not even border Israel.
Why does Iran hate
Israel so much that it would bring about # 1 above?
The answer is, it doesn't. Iran's leaders' threats are
solely for domestic consumption to deflect away from their own internal
problems.
For all of the
reasons stated above, Iran would never attack Israel with nuclear weapons, even
if they could.
Yes, I know it's
easy for me to say, and I understand the
genuine fear Israelis have; but
it will never happen. The Iranians are
not that stupid, no matter how fanatical some of their leaders may appear.
Unlike the
"Arab street" , in the not too
distant past, the Iranian people enjoyed warm relations with Israel. My guess
is they don't really care all that much
about the Palestinians; certainly not
enough to risk the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war.
Given this
reality, Israel and the US must be careful not overplay its opposition to Iran . That
could be a greater threat to peace than an Iranian nuclear program.
We should continue to pressure and oppose Iran, and hope for
change in the future ,but take care not to " smoke our own opium".
Keep the pressure on Iran, but don't allow the situation to actually explode.
Eric
No comments:
Post a Comment