Thursday, January 5, 2012

Good Old Days?

Sure we are going through an economic crisis of monumental proportions; however, I'm tired about hearing how bad things are today, and how wonderful they were for the "Greatest Generation" who returned from World War II and lived in the America we all long for again.

Really? Consider the following and compare them to today:

1. Air & water quality- vastly improved environment-- remember choking smog and really polluted lakes and rivers. We now have a much greater emphasis on conservation and ecology than in the past. The whole US could have looked like Gary once did, if we hadn't paid attention to this problem.

2. Civil rights- tremendous advancements by any measure; politically, economically and socially. While discrimination hasn't been eliminated, and embedded poverty remains, a large Black and Hispanic middle class has arisen.

3. Women's rights- Advances made my women both economically and politically have been dramatic, including reproductive rights and employment and educational opportunities.

4. Gay rights-were they even mention at that time?

5. Social safety net in general much better- not only Social Security, but Medicare and Medicaid. Poverty remains but there are more services available for the poor, both from the government and the private sector.

6. Better access to elite colleges-- There no longer are same barriers based race, religion, gender,ethnicity, social class. Yes, costs are a barrier and the "greased skids" still exist, but there is more financial aid for the really disadvantaged and even well connected kids have to be really qualified to get into the top schools.

7. Auto safety- amazing improvements- safer cars, airbags, fuel efficiency etc.

8.Technology advances- just think about all the work savers and entertainment and recreational enhancements. Advances in electronics, mobile phones, PDAs, computers, the Internet and so on have significantly improved our quality of life.

9. Lower taxes- remember how high they were in the 50s and 60s?

10. Volunteer army- We don't worry about the draft now.

11. Cold War is over, along with threat of nuclear annihilation; albeit replaced by threat of terrorism.

12. Better quality housing-houses just seem to be better built than in the post war 50s,60s. Maybe not as well built as the pre-Depression era, but lots more amenities and space.

13. Crime has been dropping steadily for the last decade or more.

14. More open political process- No longer just for white protestant men. No more "smoke filled rooms", although I must confess I yearn for some of that some times. Money is a problem , but then it always was.


I'm sure I've left out other good examples so let me know.

My views are summed up in the words of the Carly Simon song, "These are the good old days".

It's the same thing in sports where they talk about how much better players were "back in the day" etc. Those players were no different then, and the old timers back then were complaining about them.

My thoughts are not all that original, just go see Woody Allen's movie "Midnight in Paris".

Maybe it's just age and memory as some have suggested, or just the way human nature is.

The point of this post is that if the positives were pointed out more often maybe people would feel a little better things than they do. Rather than dwelling on a steady diet of negativity and how bad things have gotten compared to how they used to be, let's not forget that in so many more respects things have actually gotten better; so enjoy them.

Eric

2 comments:

  1. Completely agree, in the entire economic stratosphere we are living the comparative good life and it will probably only get better. And First World problems really pale in comparison to the less fortunate regions.

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  2. Sadly in hindsight it is easy to see the unfolding of the Great (Building) Recession and like all great tragedy is there for the audience to suspect early on. Truthfully, despite the new mechanics (securitization, tax and legislative and social incentives, ratings agencies, etc.) of this horrific cycle, the pattern of overbuilding and depressed real estate values is as old as the US. In fact my grandfather’s business fed off the same consequences during the Twenties and Thirties. He started a small “wrecking company” which ultimately became the largest in the Midwest, but in its early days was based on property owners who could not afford to own developed property and wanted the improvements (i.e. apartment building, commercial or industrial building) demolished. Labor was cheap, and my grandfather would pay for the demolition, and sell the salvage (lumber, windows, plumbing, etc.) for his profit.



    As an Economics major at Michigan, I wrote my Honors paper on “building cycles” which interested me because of both our wrecking company which had grown to hundreds of employees, and a building materials/lumber company which had also developed from my grandfather’s business. I would see our developer customers in the lumber business overbuild subdivisions and we would file liens, etc. to make recovery.



    Building cycles are long and they are not one cycle, but a combination of various kinds of sub-cycles for various sorts of residential, office, high rise, and so on. I am not an expert any longer, but the peaks and valleys of the various subsets are much different although they also overlap. The overbuilding results largely because of the enormous lag-time between visualization, accretion of land, financing, and development…the years before product comes to market. Conception in need and delivery in glut perhaps six to ten years later. The overall cycles unfortunately are generational being about 20 years in time from valley back to valley. So there will be recoveries in some forms of real estate development much sooner than in others, but now as in other real estate depressions there is no ability to finance or get investors even if a need can be perceived.



    One of the great mysteries to me is why the Obama Administration would not have known these things and the solution for the economy was to build governmental infrastructure to employ the entire generation of skilled and semi-skilled tradespeople who were formerly building homes and other buildings. Also to devote attention to remodeling and renovations to keep the housing stock of existing homes in good stead. To tear down excess store capacity. To tear down outdated industrial facilities. So there is plenty of work that can be done, but waiting for a new cycle of development…it will not happen for another dozen years.



    Marc

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