Iran Reality

I do not believe Iran is the existential nuclear threat to Israel  that has been portrayed by the Israeli right or the other opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran for the following reasons:

  1. Does Iran hate Israel enough to set off a nuclear attack that would result in :

             a. The death of millions of Iranians when Israel retaliates.

             b.  The deaths of millions of Palestinians who live in Israel and the West Bank.

             c. Radioactive fallout and death all over the Levant, depending on which way the wind blows

             d. US attack destroying what's  left of their military arsenal and much more.

 Iranians won't tolerate it when millions of their own people die and their economy is destroyed.

             

 2. This is especially true given that  Iran: 

             a. Is not even an Arab state ,

             b. Is not Sunni Muslim , and

             c. Does not even  border Israel.

 Why does Iran hate Israel so much that it would bring about # 1 above?

The answer is, it doesn't. Iran's leaders' threats are solely for domestic consumption to deflect away from their own internal problems.

 For all of the reasons stated above, Iran would never attack Israel with nuclear weapons, even if they could.

Yes,  I know it's easy for me to say, and I understand the  genuine fear Israelis have;  but it will never happen. The  Iranians are not that stupid, no matter how fanatical some of their leaders may appear.

 Unlike the "Arab street" , in  the not too distant past, the Iranian people enjoyed warm relations with Israel. My guess is they don't really care all that much about the Palestinians;  certainly not enough to risk the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war.

 Given this reality, Israel and the US must be careful  not overplay its opposition to Iran . That could be a greater threat to peace than an Iranian nuclear program.

We should continue to pressure and oppose Iran, and hope for change in the future ,but take care not to " smoke our own opium". Keep the pressure on Iran, but don't allow the situation  to actually explode.

Eric 

China / North Korea Gambit

Here's a theory:

The crisis on the Korean Peninsula was all a set up by China; working with its client dependent state North Korea.

China will get North Korea to back down in exchange for trade concessions from the US. 

 More importantly, the US will acquiesce to China regarding the South China Sea;  as well as ultimately removing US troops and missiles from Japan and South Korea. This will all play out over time.

 

This will cost China very little but the US will essentially cede economic and military dominance in Asia to China. Sadly, Trump and the Progressive were going that direction anyway.

North Korean belligerence was all a set up for the benefit of China. Otherwise what does North Korea get out of its aggressive behavior. They gain nothing from war, but  will get absolute protection from China after they "back down".

In other words, the Chinese and North Korea have set this whole thing up for China's benefit; all the while, Trump takes credit for reducing the North Korean nuclear threat. 

Trump will say he's the winner, but in reality he will have been played.

Someday historians will ask , who lost Asia?  The answer will be Donald J. Trump. 

Seismic Shift in World Order

With the rejection of the TPP and the US withdrawal from the world stage, Trump and the Progressives will have ceded world dominance to China and leadership of the Free World to  Germany, or perhaps no one at all.  Russia will only grow stronger.

Presumably Trump is doing this to put America First, but in fact loss of American global dominance and free world leadership actually makes America less prosperous or secure, and consequently not as great as we are today.

Every knowledgeable person I know says the US always gets what it wants in international  trade agreements, and our NATO and other military presence globally underpins much of our economic dominance, as well as our security.

America First, anti-trade and isolationism, will actually hurt America , both morally and economically , and will make America less secure.

Eric

Trump the deal maker?

Donald Trump's " legendary" deal making is based on making a deal with someone and later reneging on the deal or screwing the other side, and then moving on to making a deal with someone else; not caring who he screws or hurts in the process.

Things are different with regards to government since the people who he may have to screw to get his deal made will be the same people that he'll  have to be dealing with in the next deal that he tries to make.

The business community at-large has recognized Trump's deceitful techniques ; that's why no reputable banks will do business with him, few contractors and vendors will work with him, and fewer  and fewer business people will make deals with him. 

However, there is a veritable endless  supply of people for Trump to make deals with worldwide. It will take a lot of time to run out of them completely.

On the other hand, the government and Congress has a limited number of people. When you start reneging on deals or screwing them, and then have to work with them again subsequently , they will not forget or forgive.

President Trump may "win" some in the beginning, but if he continues to "win" the way  he's done it in the private sector, he'll quickly run out of suckers to screw.

Eric

Time to Stop

Our republic is at risk, so it's time for the responsible media to stop constantly hitting Hillary about her emails and the Clinton Foundation.

They've established their objectivity by repeatedly beating her up on these issues.

The strategy of continually leaking more emails by the Russian puppet Julian Assuage and Russian hackers is designed to keep this issue in the news. No new real substance has been revealed.

The responsible media doesn't need to fall for  this trick.

 I'm not saying the media shouldn't report attacks by Trump and his supporters. However they don't need to pile on the attacks against her just to appear balanced.  

 Now is the time to save the Country from the catastrophe of a Trump election victory. Too much is at stake. 

Americans have gotten a raise

Headlines about "Americans not getting raises" is just not true for most people or is at least misleading. Most workers do get raises yearly, even though the base pay they started at didn't go up.

While the base may not have gone up, most workers still get raises.

Admittedly not the best example,  the Cravath law firm  just raised starting salaries for new lawyers after holding it flat for 9 years. Yet every year for the last 9 years those associates got seniority and merit raises.

 Statistically their wages were flat, but in reality they got raises. 

The same is true of the  secretaries at my firm. Their base salary may not go up, but they do get seniority and merit raises. Again the headline is they didn't get a raise because their base salary stayed the same.

The articles saying Americans haven't gotten a raise for decades make an interesting statistical argument. However, for the reasons stated above, I feels that is misleading.

 I keep thinking about what Mark Twain said about statistics.

I just look around, and not just in my neighborhood, and things have gotten better for many Americans. 

Not everybody, and it's true some get paid way way too much, but our economy is not in shambles, and we are not at the edge of an abyss. 

The narrative of our horrendous economy in free fall with impending gloom and doom, is just false, and Donald Trump is the result of Americans believing that false narrative.

Rising upper middle class

While my blog posts about the "two way" shrinking middle class has fallen on deaf ears, my view has been confirmed by the CNN fact checking of Sanders speech last night and the article in CNN linked below.

Here is an excerpt from the fact checkers regarding the shrinking middle class:

"Income gains have caused rippling changes in every economic class.  A new Urban Institute Report showed a nation climbing the economic ladder-- and a lower class that is shrinking. From 1979-2014 , the middle class has decreased from 38.8% to  32% of the population. The lower middle and lower classes saw similar declines... Instead , previous middle class Americans are moving up the economic chain-- resulting in a thriving upper middle class."

It went on to conclude " that  the standard of living has gone up for nearly all Americans."

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-class/

Although many problems persist, this view is consistent with Michelle Obama's speech last night.

Why have we had the misleading narrative for so long?